Expert says Fiji elections likely on agenda at Beijing meetings

Transcript

A China foreign policy scholar, Dr Marc Lanteigne, says Beijing will be looking to glean information on Fiji's transition to elections during Commodore Frank Bainimarama's top level meetings there this week.

The Fiji government says the prime minister is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang on Wednesday.

Dr Lanteigne, who is the director of research at the New Zealand Contemporary China Research Centre, told Sally Round that Commodore Bainimarama's leadership of several international groups is significant to the Chinese.

DR MARC LANTEIGNE: I think it will provide the acknowledgement to the Chinese leadership that Fiji is very much a keystone country in the South Pacific, the fact that Fiji is involved with these organisations. And it's also the understanding that Fiji has a pretty significant voice in South Pacific affairs, despite regional differences over the current state of the Fijian government.

SALLY ROUND: Does Beijing care that the Fiji regime is making much of its 'Look North' policy, snubbing its nose at traditional partners like Australia and New Zealand? Is this something that Beijing is navigating carefully?

ML: Beijing is navigating this very carefully and needs to do so. China does not want to give the impression that it is in direct competition for diplomatic power with other states in the region, especially the United States, Australia and New Zealand. China has made it very clear that it wishes to be a partner in the region, not act as a great power seeking to push out traditional friends and allies. And China has also been very careful not to give the impression that the increasingly improved relationship with the Fijian government is also all about politics. China has made it very clear that it considers the political and the economic dimensions of its relations with Fiji to be two separate products. And China has argued that its continuing economic support for Fiji should not be necessarily construed as direct political support. China is still a relative newcomer to the region, compared to Australia, New Zealand, the US, France. And there's still a bit of an information defIcit which China is having to address very quickly.

SR: Do you think that's part of what the Bainimarama visit is about, trying to glean more info?

ML: That is part of it, just information gathering. I think China needs to find out more about what will happen next year in the run-up to the elections, what this will mean to the regional politics as a whole. Because, depending on which way the elections go, that will obviously affect Fiji's relations with the west. So will the cold relations between Fiji, Australia and New Zealand continue or will relations improve after a successful election and China will find itself having to deal more closely in Fiji with the West?

SR: Do you think it will try to exert any influence at all on the prime minister in that regard?

ML: I don't think 'influence' would be quite the right term. I think probably offering advice and maybe just offering support for the transition process. For example, Bainimarama has said a few times, including when he first announced that he was going to China, that China has been very supportive of the transition process and that a meeting will probably involve talks on how the transition will go from here on. So i think the Fijian government will be open to advice. I'm pretty sure, though, that China will kind of restrain itself from any kind of direct influence.