Expert says clock starts ticking for Fiji elections in new year

Transcript

An expert in transitional politics, Paul Buchanan, says the Fiji regime has until the end of January to announce key election machinery or risk next year's polls being seen as illegitimate.

The regime's leader Commodore Frank Bainimarama has promised elections by the end of September but his critics says he is stalling on preparations like announcing the Electoral Commission to enhance his chance of winning.

Dr Buchanan of 36th Parallel Assessments says everything can be accomplished in that time frame assuming there is good faith on the part of the military regime and its opposition. Sally Round spoke to him.

PAUL BUCHANAN: If there is bad faith on the part of the military regime, then certainly the six-month window would be used to hamstring the Opposition from campaigning effectively, which is what makes the beginning of the calendar year so important. Because that's nine months out and certainly gives from January all the way to the elections in September the opposition, as well as the regime, more than enough time to get their supporters in order, to get their campaigns in order, and to begin the process of appealing to the public vote.

SALLY ROUND: What about the fact that Fiji is going to be having a completely new style of election with only one electorate. Would that not necessitate a longer time frame?

PB: True, but it's been on the books since last March. So people have been very familiar with the intent of the outgoing regime, and that's what has generated some of the opposition to it, including those who at this point have decided not to participate. Certainly in terms of the popular mind set, they've had nine months or so to digest the fact that his will be a new electoral set-up and the parties that have registered are cognisant of that and are proceeding accordingly.

SR: Any idea what the delay could be in setting up this electoral commission?

PB: Well, I think there are two reasons for it - one of them is that there are many who are reluctant to be part of what they consider to be part of a rubber-stamping exercise that will result in the election of Commodore Bainimarama as the first supposedly democratic civilian president. And he may well remain as chief of the armed forces, which would defeat the purpose of the exercise. So there are many of those, both international jurists as well as people in Fiji, who simply don't want to give legitimacy to something that they think is a fait accompli. On the other hand, the regime may be delaying in order to find people who will see the correctness of their views, if you will, with regards to the need for a fundamental change in which the Fijian political process is played out and the way elections are held. And because there is some reluctance on the part of prestigious jurists and people with good reputations, to participate it may be particularly difficult for them to get people to associate themselves who would involve themselves in a process that is suspect from the get-go. But they will, in fact, find - and I imagine that they would find within the next two or three months - people who are amenable to participating and supervising these elections and that's where the international community comes in because the international community is at odds with the regime over a number of items in this process. The hard fact is that the regime will go ahead with the elections no matter what, whether they're considered legitimate or illegitimate by the opposition and the international community. And the regime has the backing of very important international actors who really don't care about the outcome so long as their investments in Fiji and their diplomatic relations with Fiji are not hindered in any way. And the two most important of those are the People's Republic of China and Russia.