12 Jul 2017

'I think the endgame is chaos'

From Nine To Noon, 9:52 am on 12 July 2017

In Australia, the Malcolm Turnbull & Tony Abbott show rolls on, with the former Liberal Party leader continuing to destabalise the leadership of Turnbull and no endgame in sight.

The two political enemies are fighting for the soul of the Liberal Party, says Nine to Noon's Australian political commentator Bernard Keane.

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Photo: AFP/File

"We've had week of Tony Abbott almost being on the hustings, putting forward a very socially conservative and set of economically neo-liberal set of agenda points where he thinks the government should go - all things he failed to do when he was in government." 

While Abbott has said in a series of speeches and interviews that the Liberal Party needs to reconnect with conservative values, Turnbull has been setting out a different view of the centre-right party's place in the world.

"Malcolm Turnbull, who's been at the G20 and literally went off to London to meet the Queen, gave a speech in the UK pretty much directly firing back at Tony Abbott, saying the Liberal Party, of which they've both been leaders, is a liberalparty. There's always been this tension in the Australian Liberal party whether it's a liberal party in the small 'l' sense or a conservative party."

Although the current public stoush between Turnbull and Abbott may echo previous internecine battles between Labor leaders Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, it differs in a fundamental sense, Keane says.

"[It] is as much about ideology as it is about the personalities of these enemies."

Gillard and Rudd's clash was about power, he says.

"There was very little ideological difference between them, it was always about personalities, about Kevin Rudd and his ego."

Abbott and Turnbull are locked in an ideological battle, he says.

"When Tony Abbott and Malcolm Turnbull had their first stoush back in 2009, when Abbott knocked off Turnbull, that was over climate change. Tony Abbott is a climate [change] denialist. What Turnbull has done in the last few month is shift the government to the centre politically away from the direction of the Abbott government."

Politically, Turnbull has no choice as Abbott's vision of what a Liberal Party should be doesn't chime with the Australian electorate, Keane says.

"The electorate in Australia really has shifted leftward."

So what is Abbott's plan? Another tilt at the top job is out of the question, he says.

"There's no endgame here which is what I think is so frustrating for so many Liberals. Tony Abbott can't come back because he is very unpopular in the electorate and within his own party. Because of the way he's been conducting himself I think he would struggle to get into double figures if there was a party room leadership vote."

And the Liberals are not spoilt for leadership alternatives, Keane says.

"There's [immigration minister] Peter Dutton, he's socially conservative and electorally unpopular as well. There's no viable alternative to Malcolm Turnbull that means they're tearing down one leader without another leader waiting to replace him."

And Keane sees no end in sight to Abbott's sniping from the sidelines.

"He has indicated he's going to keep in there undermining and destabilising Malcolm Turnbull. I think the endgame is chaos from the Liberal Party point of view." 

Meanwhile the Labor opposition is watching on and reaping the benefits.

"Bill Shorten and colleagues are sitting back saying 'This is great, Tony Abbott is doing our work for us'".