27 Sep 2012

Economist picking trade balance to stay in deficit

10:00 am on 27 September 2012

An economist is picking the trade balance to remain in deficit due to weaker export prices and a recovery in consumer demand for imports.

Official figures show a seasonally adjusted deficit of $101 millionfor August, compared with a small surplus of $9 million for the same month in 2011.

The seasonally adjusted value of exported goods fell 8%, while the value of exports to Australia had the biggest decline, down 17% to $172 million.

ASB economist Jane Turner says there is typically a deficit over August due to seasonal patterns in the country's exports, but the exports are weaker than expected.

Ms Turner says New Zealand's trade surplus was eroded during 2012 and it has moved into a deficit, suggesting less support from the export sector for the country's economic recovery over the year.

However, Ms Turner says there are some upsides for dairy and meat prices over 2013 and that has the potential to help the trade balance recover and move back into surplus.

The seasonally adjusted value of imported goods decreased slightly, down 1.3% in August compared with the previous month.

Ms Turner expects imports to gradually recover as the domestic demand improves which will further erode the trade balance.