Expectations of higher global dairy prices next year are not expected to result in a higher payout to Fonterra's 10,500 farmers - at least not yet.
Auction prices rose 1.1% to $US3311 a metric tonne at the auction overnight on Tuesday, and have risen more than a quarter since May.
BNZ economist Doug Steel says dairy prices should continue to rise next year, due to stronger demand from countries like China and shortages of supply from northern hemisphere producers.
But Mr Steel says Fonterra is likely to have factored that in to its latest forecast payout range of $5.90 to $6.00 a kilo of milk solids.
He says the mix between international prices and the currency is what matters most, rather than what they do individually.
Mr Steel says the New Zealand dollar is likely to remain above US80 cents for 2013, and at the same time there are improving international prices, which gives some prospect of increasing payout.
But he says even if prices lift and the currency remains stable it will confirm the forecast and not necessarily mean the payout will increase.
