An overseas-based money manager says the Reserve Bank will have no choice but to cut interest rates in the future.
The Official Cash Rate has stood at a record low of 2.5% since March 2011.
Russell Investments says money printing by the United States, Europe, and Japan to revive their economies has driven up the New Zealand dollar.
Its chief market strategist in North America, Stephen Wood, says the central bank will need to act if it wants to avoid crippling the export sector.
But most local analysts say the Christchurch rebuild and an overheating Auckland property market mean the next move in the Official Cash Rate will be up, not down.