One of the country's main banks says economic stimulus in the form of mortgage rate cuts, falling petrol prices and a lower dollar will not be enough to overcome effects of the downturn in Asia.
ASB economist Jane Turner says an export-led recovery looks precarious as demand from the country's main trading partners weakens.
Ms Turner says the slowing of economic growth in China is of particular concern, having fallen from 10% in the past few months.
She expects the Reserve Bank will lower the official cash rate to 5% by January.
