19 Jul 2010

Tourist numbers may be lower than expected next year

8:46 am on 19 July 2010

An economist believes fewer than expected international tourists will visit New Zealand next year, partly because overcrowding during the Rugby World Cup will put them off.

GoldmanSachs JB Were economist Philip Borkin says tourist numbers have held up relatively well during the economic downturn, partly because of strong growth in the number of arrivals from Australia.

But he says that's shown signs of slowing in recent months and visitor arrivals from Europe and Britain also remain weak.

Mr Borkin had forecast passenger numbers to grow by 3.7% in the 2011 financial year, but recently revised that down slightly, to 3.5%.

The Ministry of Tourism expects the Rugby World Cup to attract 85,000 international visitors, but Mr Borkin thinks the true number of arrivals may be closer to about 65,000.