The New Zealand Institute of Economic Research is forecasting a bleak few months for the economy.
In its latest quarterly predictions, it says the recovery has reversed and spending could dip in summer.
The NZIER says net migration is being slowed by interest rates, and critical indicators like house sales and the quarterly survey of business opinion point to a slow finish to the year.
The institute's principal economist, Shamubeel Eaqub, says it looks likely that growth will stall in the next few months, with the country narrowly avoiding a double-dip recession.
He says interest rates must stay on hold, net migration needs to pick up and lending conditions improve for the economy to grow strongly from the middle of next year.