22 Jul 2011

Rush in mortgage changes could see rise in rates

8:00 am on 22 July 2011

A rush of people adjusting their mortgage rates could prompt banks to raise rates even before the Official Cash Rate goes up.

Speculation has mounted in the past week that the Reserve Bank will lift the Official Cash Rate earlier than expected, possibly as soon as September.

The OCR is currently 2.5%. It was lowered to this level by the Reserve Bank on 10 March.

Auckland mortgage broker Christine Lockie says that's led to a rush of people wanting to fix their mortgage rates.

Grant Hassell of AMP says banks appear to have anticipated the rush, borrowing more on local money markets, pushing up the cost of funding two and three-year fixed mortgages.

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander says those increased funding costs could soon be passed on by the banks to customers.

Radio New Zealand's economics correspondent says last week's GDP figures, backed by robust consumer price numbers this week, suggested the economy is growing more quickly than originally thought, and with it inflationary pressure.

That has dramatically increased the odds the money markets are giving of a rise in the OCR in October, from zero a week ago to a 100% chance now.

The odds of a September hike have gone from zero to 50%.

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