8 Aug 2011

Analysts upbeat about forthcoming earnings season

6:38 am on 8 August 2011

Analysts are upbeat about the forthcoming earnings season, saying firms are in a strong financial position and many have been enjoying sales growth.

Earnings growth had been dominated by cost cutting in recent times, but the Forsyth Barr is forecasting stronger economic activity will push up sales and profits by 4% in the first half of the year.

Forsyth Barr analyst Guy Hallwright says he wants to know whether firms will say that the 2012 year will yield even stronger sustainable growth.

He says he expects the figures to show a continuation of what's been seen in the last few quarters with a gradual improvement.

Mr Hallwright says he's expecting the figures to be slightly stronger than in the last quarter with some growth in sales, operating earnings and reported profit.

He says the focus is on what companies say their prospects are for the 2012 financial year.

Mr Hallwright says it will be interesting to find whether companies are being more cautious and pulling back, or whether it's the reverse and they are starting to talk things up.

Tower Investments chief executive Sam Stubbs is also upbeat and says New Zealand companies have been very resilient about running their businesses in a high currency environment.

He says the benefits of the commodity boom are starting to flow through to the real economy with businesses seeing a pick up in profits and having fairly robust balance sheets.

Christchurch recovery

Mr Stubbs says the very first inklings of a Christchurch recovery are also expected.

He says the expectations and signals that businesses are giving about how they will be operating in the next six to 12 months will start to be more positive.

Mr Stubbs says the global turmoil is making the New Zealand equity market start to look like a safe haven, with stable earnings and strong balance sheets.

He says there is an expectation that the Reserve Bank will do sensible things with interest rates, which long term means interest rates will drift up making New Zealand's currency look like a relatively safe bet from overseas.

He says off shore buyers, particularly Australian buyers, would then start to look positively at the New Zealand equity market.