24 Aug 2011

July trade surplus first for 20 years

10:21 pm on 24 August 2011

New Zealand's economy shrugged off the surging dollar last month to post a July trade surplus for the first time in 20 years.

But economists are warning the recent run of big trade surpluses may be coming to an end.

Exports continued to hold up well in July, up 5% from a year ago at $3.7 billion, while a 4% fall in imports to $3.6 billion also contributed strongly to the surplus.

The surplus was despite an increase of 3.4% in the New Zealand currency in July.

Radio New Zealand's economics correspondent says the higher dollar makes exports more expensive for overseas buyers, while imports into New Zealand become cheaper.

Exports of milk powder, butter and cheese were higher than the same month a year ago. Imports of petrol, diesel and crude oil were down.

An earlier poll of economists showed most forecasting a deficit of $150 million, rather than the $129 million surplus actually achieved.

But Deutsche Bank chief economist Darren Gibbs warns the numbers gave little to cheer about.

Mr Gibbs says imports were much lower than expected, suggesting that households are struggling more than previously thought, while exports to Asia are showing signs of sagging.

An ASB economist, Jane Turner, says the figures suggest a recent run of trade surpluses may have peaked.