The latest Marae-DigiPoll shows a turnaround in the seat of Ikaroa-Rawhiti, with Labour Party candidate Parekura Horomia taking the lead from the Maori Party's Derek Fox.
Mr Horomia has gained nearly 4 points since the last poll in July and now sits on 49.8% support, up from 45.6%.
Over the same period Derek Fox has dropped nearly 3 points over that period and now sits on 44.4%, down from 47.1%.
Labour has also gained in the party vote and is up 3 points to 45.5%, while the Maori Party's support remains virtually unchanged on 39.2%, from 39.4%.
National recorded a big drop, down from 10.7% to 3.1%.
NZ First is on 4.9% (up from 3.3%) and the Greens 3.9% (up from 2.3%).
Only 20.8% of those surveyed said they would support the Maori Party forming a coalition with National, while 83.4% said they would support a coalition with Labour.
A total of 400 voters were surveyed between 15 and 28 October and the poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.