The first poll taken after the Nicky Hager book launch, by DigiPoll for the New Zealand Herald from August 14 to 20, did not dent National's polling average, which was 50.8% in the four polls up to mid-August. DigiPoll recorded a drop from its last poll in mid-July but gave a higher figure than the TV3 poll which dropped out of the latest four-poll average.
(Explainer: The POLL of POLLS is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since mid-June ,from among the following: TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Fairfax Media-Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand (up to June only one of its two-a-month was included) and UMR Research, which is not published.*)
DigiPoll's 25.2% reading for Labour dragged Labour's average down to 25.3%. That average included the Ipsos poll for Fairfax Media, which gave National much more and Labour much less than other recent polls.
The Greens' average is steady at 11.9%, within a range it has held since the last election.
Poll performance of National vs Labour vs Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
National's continued strong polling has lifted its average lead over a Labour-plus-Greens combination to 13.6%.
Poll performance of National vs Labour and Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
New Zealand First has got close to the 5% hurdle, with a 4.9% average to mid-August, boosted by a high 6.5% in the Roy Morgan poll. Internet-Mana was 2.7%, the Conservatives 2.4%, the Maori party 0.9%, ACT 0.5% and United Future 0.3%.
Poll performance of NZ First vs Internet-Mana vs Conservatives (2014). Graphic: RNZ
In the New Zealand Herald DigiPoll mid-August poll John Key was down 8 points to 65% as preferred Prime Minister, well above the two TV poll measures - 45% in TV1 and 44.1% in TV3. David Cunliffe was 15% in the Herald poll and 10% in the TV channel polls.
There was a slight lift in the latest Roy Morgan reading (from August 4-17) of whether the country is heading in the right direction. This slight lift is more confirmation that the mood is topping out but it remains very positive.
Graphic: RNZ
(* The four polls included in the average to mid-August were, in date order of the midpoint between the start and finish of voter interviews: Fairfax, TV1, Roy Morgan and NZ Herald. The poll on whether the country is going in the right or wrong direction is from Roy Morgan New Zealand. )
