Early summer is not expected to be especially warm.
NIWA says an El Nino weather pattern until the end of January is expected to produce average temperatures throughout the North Island, Nelson and Marlborough. Temperatures in the rest of the South Island will be below average.
The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research says summer will be late and probably will not fully begin until January.
The institute says conditions in eastern parts could be dry, particularly in the North Island.
Hawke's Bay has had drought for three consecutive summers.
However, Federated Farmers says dry weather is not such a big concern there this year as soil moisture is the best it has been in years.