16 Oct 2012

Farmer confidence declines - survey

11:08 am on 16 October 2012

Farmer confidence is continuing to decline and remains in negative territory, the latest rural survey from Rabobank suggests.

The Rabobank survey of 450 farmers, conducted late September, shows 44% of farmers expect the agricultural economy to worsen in the next 12 months. That compares with 36% in the previous quarter.

Rabobank New Zealand chief executive Ben Russell says farmers previously held a negative view of the overall economy, but felt their own businesses would still perform well.

This survey indicates they expect a greater negative impact on their own businesses.

Mr Russell attributes the change to the effect of the high New Zealand dollar and falling commodity prices.

In the latest survey, 50% of farmers point to those issues as the reason why they lack confidence.

Rising input costs also worry farmers

Beef and sheep farmers hold the gloomiest view, while dairy farmers are the most positive.

Despite milk prices falling in August, a 15% lift in global dairy commodity prices since then has curbed dairy farmer pessimism.

After rallying in the previous survey, the outlook in the horticulture sector remains negative.

There is still major concern about PSA among kiwi fruit growers, who are worried about lower incomes.