Federated Farmers is predicting that lamb numbers could be down by more than three million this year, mainly due to the impact of the North Island and western South Island drought.
That's a drop of a million on what Beef and Lamb New Zealand's economic service forecast last month.
The body's annual stock number survey indicated two million fewer lambs would be born this spring, reducing the number to less than 24.5 million.
It says the reduction is due to a combination of factors triggered by the drought, including poorer ewe condition and a drop in North Island ewe numbers.
However, Federated Farmers meat and fibre chair Jeanette Maxwell says other factors that have come to light since then suggest the reduction in lamb numbers could be even greater because of a lower than expected pregnancy rate among hoggets, or one-year-old sheep.
"While our ewe percentages have been back in affected areas about 20%, I've certainly heard of farmers with hogget scanning of only 30%, so that has a greater impact overall," she says.
Long recovery
Federated Farmers says it could take five years for farms to fully recover from the drought, as they rebuild stock numbers and contend with lower incomes from the reduced sheep and cattle numbers.
Adverse events spokesperson Katie Milne says despite it being the worst drought in 70 years, the amount in rural assistance grants paid out to hard-pressed farming families amounted to less than $1 million.
The Government granted 146 applications for assistance and paid out just over $800,000, as well as grants for rural support trusts.
"It's very difficult to qualify for assistance, which is how we want it," says Ms Milne.
"You really have to be, unfortunately, in a very dire situation before anything comes forward from the Government and it's bascially the dole, enough to put food on the table."
