The Ministry of Primary Industries says at the current rate of growth, the primary sector won't meet the Government's goal to double the value of exports by 2025.
The Ministry's latest situation and outlook report predicted the overall export value would be $41.3 billion in four years.
MPI's director of sector policy Jarred Mair said the 2025 target was always aspirational, and while it would still be striving to achieve it, it will be tough.
"We are slightly behind where we'd like to be in terms of that. I think that's reflective of both the supply-demand dynamics we've seen on the international market, but also more broadly, the two big droughts that we've seen in the last three years, have dampened down that sort of progress," he said.
"In terms of our track going forward, we're still seeing strong investment going into a lot of the big programmes and some very exciting developments coming out of the sectors.
"So we are predicting good strong growth as you can see through our forecast, but the challenge for us now is how we catch up that sort of loss over the past three years."