A similar apple and pear export crop to last season is forecast by Pipfruit New Zealand. It estimates a crop of 300,000 tonnes or about 16.5 million cartons.
Chief executive Peter Beaven says the big change this year is an expected drop of almost a quarter in the supply of the Braeburn variety, which was once the mainstay of apple exports.
Royal Gala is now the biggest export variety, with an expected crop of 5.7 million cartons for export this year.
Jazz apples are expected to top two million cartons for the first time and will make up 12% of the export volume.
Pipfruit NZ says the similarity with last season's volume is unusual.
There were significant production swings from season to season in the previous five years, because apple trees tend to be naturally biennial-bearing. Frosts during flowering can also have a big impact on production.
