21 Oct 2017

All Blacks poised to crack 2000 tries

12:57 pm on 21 October 2017

There's been a distinct lack of buzz around the All Black test tonight, but here's a reason to keep an eye on it - especially if you're a stats geek.

Rieko Ioane celebrates scoring a try against South Africa in 2017, the last time the All Blacks played in Cape Town.

Rieko Ioane celebrates scoring a try against South Africa in 2017, the last time the All Blacks played in Cape Town. Photo: PHOTOSPORT

The All Blacks are poised to set a pretty impressive record at Suncorp Stadium if the test against the Wallabies goes the way of the last two they've played.

Check back here at 10pm for Jamie Wall's live updates on the match.

No, it's not flanker Sam Cane's 50th test match, nor skipper Kieran Read's 100th test start out of 107 appearances - though those are pretty special too.

If the All Blacks can cross the Wallabies' line five times tonight, it'll mean they've racked up 2000 tries in their test history.

Let's put that into context: that's 1995 tries in 562 tests. Which means in the 114 years of All Black rugby, they're good for 3.5 tries every time they walk on the field. Add in the fact that the first 80 or so years of test rugby was, admittedly, pretty dour and it becomes even more impressive.

But even more so when you stack it up against other test-playing nations. The tier one nation closest to the All Blacks' total is France, with 1708 tries in their 113-year history. But while they're a mere 287 behind, they've also played 178 more tests at a rate of 2.3 tries a game.

All Blacks Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Sam Cane.

All Blacks Kieran Read, Sam Whitelock and Sam Cane. Photo: PHOTOSPORT

The next highest try-scoring team are the All Blacks' opponents for tonight, the Wallabies. They've scored 1604 tries in 613 tests for a slightly better return of 2.6 a game.

England are next, with 1579 from 712 tests at a rate of 2.2. Then Wales, with 1514 from 701 at more or less the same rate.

The Springboks are down the list with 1329 tries from 473 tests, the only major nation that has played less games than the All Blacks. However, that's because they were in sporting isolation for a decade. In any event, their strike rate is only slightly higher than the others, at 2.8 tries a test.

Back to the impending milestone though.

Five tries in a test may seem like a lot, but the All Blacks scored that number in their thrilling win over the Wallabies in Dunedin - which was the last time these sides met. Before that, they crossed for eight in the beat down at Olympic Park in Sydney.

In fact, if the game narrative mirrors the classic test at Forsyth Barr Stadium, the 2000th try the All Blacks score may well be the match winner.

So what's all this data telling us that we don't already know?

Well, may not so much - the All Blacks have a reputation for playing the most entertaining rugby in the world that's seemingly solidified every time they take the field these days.

But it's nice to know that it's backed up by mathematical evidence.

* Jamie Wall grew up in Wellington and enjoyed a stunningly mediocre rugby career in which the single highlight was a seat on the bench for his club's premier side. He's enjoyed far more success spouting his viewpoints on the game, and other topics, to anyone who'll care to listen.

-RNZ