A poll of 400 Maori voters in Waiariki puts the Maori Party MP and candidate, Te Ururoa Flavell, in front of the Labour and Mana candidates, with 56% of the electorate supporting him.
The Te Karere DigiPoll survey shows Labour's Louis Te Kani and Mana's Annette Sykes with 22% support each.
Sixty percent of respondents say they believe the government is heading in the wrong direction, while 44% also think their whanau is worse off under the current government. Only 21% believe they are better off.
The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.