25 Jun 2013

ALP could lose 35 of 71 seats: poll

1:49 pm on 25 June 2013

A new poll in Australia says federal Labor could lose 35 of its 71 seats at the forthcoming federal election in September, including nine held by ministers.

The JWS Research poll, published in the Australian Financial Review on Tuesday, surveyed 47 Labor seats held by a margin of 12% or less.

AFP reports it shows there has been a nationwide two-party-preferred swing of 7.6% against the government in these seats since the last election.

The poll suggests Labor would improve under the leadership of Kevin Rudd, but a majority does not believe there should be a leadership change.

About 26% of voters in these seats who are intending to vote for the coalition are more likely to vote Labor if Mr Rudd took over.

However, 54% of those surveyed believe Labor should not change leaders while just 33% believe there should be a change.

In Queensland, only Mr Rudd would be left standing. AAP reports among those to fall would be Treasurer Wayne Swan and Trade Minister Craig Emerson.

The federal election is on 14 September.

Magazine comments

Prime Minister Julia Gillard says she has no regrets about calling the election eight months in advance and believes Labor can still win.

In an interview conducted last month, the Prime Minister told the Australian Women's Weekly that she is "glad" she announced the election date on 29 January.

"Every time I pick up a newspaper and it's got articles about our school agenda ... I think to myself, gee, I'm glad I cleared all of that space - got all that early election fever, to make sure we were talking about some of the big policy ideas," she said.

"The debate about the election shouldn't be about when it is, it should be about what future we are choosing for the nation when we vote."

Ms Gillard said the ALP could win the election but would not name the seats she thought the party would pick up.