Candidates who pushed for political change in Tonga may win half of the seats allocated to ordinary voters in an election this week, a poll indicates.
The Tongan Media Council poll of 2400 people was conducted on the main island last week and has a margin of error of plus or minus 6%.
Changes in the electoral system mean that for the first time ordinary people will vote in the majority of MPs on Thursday.
Long-time campaigners for political change Akilisi Pohiva, Clive Edwards and Isileli Pulu are well ahead of rivals, while their associates also lead in their electorates.
However, a member of the Tonga Media Council, Kalafi Moala, says it is unlikely they will hold the balance of power.
Mr Moala says some conservative and well-known former government senior staff may also win seats.