A climate expert said new research will allow for better planning in small island states and other countries concerned about the impacts of global warming.
The Australian led study published in the Nature Climate Change journal simulated a global temperature increase of 1.5 degrees celsius, within the limit set out by the Paris climate agreement.
It found that such an increase would raise the frequency of extreme weather events like droughts, floods and cyclones during the Pacific's El Niño weather pattern.
The University of Tasmania's Peter Strutton said it seemed unlikely that Paris climate targets would be met.
El Niño events have occurred about ten times each century, but Professor Strutton said the study indicated the weather pattern's frequency would double.
"In some ways the work is telling us some of what we already knew but putting some numbers on it so that can help us to plan for the future and know how many El Niños events we will experience over the next couple of centuries," he said.