Poll analysis shows Bainimarama support widespread

Transcript

A scholar of Fiji politics, Jon Fraenkel, says the emphatic election win by Frank Bainimarama and his FijiFirst party was based on a number of factors including support from the young and from areas which were traditional strongholds of the deposed SDL government.

The professor in Comparative Politics at Victoria University of Wellington has been analysing results from the more than 2000 polling stations under Fiji's new single constituency electoral system.

Professor Fraenkel spoke to Sally Round after releasing his analysis at a recent Wellington symposium on the elections.

JON FRAENKEL: But it's clear that the Bainimarama government's victory was based on the support in the West and in the Central division, very strong support. Particularly provinces like Tailevu and Naitasiri which were very important for the deposed SDL or Sodelpa government, those switched across to Bainimarama. The support for the opposition was strongest in those areas with small or declining populations, areas where there was a low turn-out and that was I think their difficulty. Sodelpa's support was strongest in the north and in the Lau group but these are small areas compared to the Viti Levu areas where the largest share of the population live. It's also clear that supporters of FijiFirst probably turned out to register in larger numbers than those in Sodelpa and also turned out to vote in larger numbers than Sodelpa. This manufactured a really overwhelming victory for the party of government.

SALLY ROUND: And what about the urban/rural divide, what did you notice there?

JF: Well that it wasn't, a lot of people had anticipated that this would be enormous, some even went so far as to say that the deposed government represented the rural areas and that Bainimarama represented the towns. And although there was a difference with Bainimarama's party getting a larger share of the vote in the towns than in the countryside, the difference wasn't that large. Both of the two major parties had significant urban and rural votes. In fact the only parties that had larger shares of the urban vote than they had of the rural vote were the National Federation Party and some of the independents.

SR: And what about the influence of the lowering of the voting age, did you find any interesting things happen there?

JF: We know the figures, we know from the elections office that about 30 percent of the population had never voted in any previous general election. Partly because there's been eight years since the general election and also because the voting age has been reduced from 21 to 18. We don't know the composition of voting but I think a lot of people draw conclusions that are well founded that FijiFirst support was particularly strong amongst younger people.

SR: And you talked about a mixed picture in terms of people's wealth or poverty.

JF: Well if you look down at the settlements, the areas of squatter settlements, the poorer more impoverished areas. I've looked mainly in the Central division, places like Nadonumai, Suvavou, Raiwaqa, some people had speculated that these areas would vote very very strongly for Bainimarama, I don't think that was the case if you look at those figures. Some poor areas did vote very strongly for Bainimarama, areas like, some of the urban areas in Suva, like Vatuwaqa for example. But these are areas that are very densely Fiji/Indian in composition.