South China Sea ruling could have knock-on effects for Pacific

Transcript

Some Pacific island countries' claims to lucrative fishing and seabed mining resources could be limited by a landmark ruling on the South China Sea.

Experts say this month's decision by the Permanent Court of Arbitration could also mean an uptick in China's help to the Pacific region.

Sally Round reports.

Experts say the ruling is hugely significant for the development of the Law of the Sea partly because it clarifies how to determine whether a land feature is an island or a rock and that has a bearing on how much resource-rich surrounding sea a country can claim. An International Law of the Sea specialist Donald Rothwell says the ruling may have a knock-on effect on Pacific island countries' control of their huge fishing resource, with possible challenges to the extent of Exclusive Economic Zones.

 DONALD ROTHWELL: We may well see not only a redrawing of the maritime entitlements in the South China Sea but also in some of these closely contested areas in the Pacific where we have a mix of islands whose status is not really in doubt, but very small maritime features which are very remote, but which some South Pacific states may well have been seeking to rely upon to extend their maritime entitlements even further into the Pacific.

But Professor Rothwell says it's most unlikely the ruling would unravel arrangements on maritime boundaries in the region which have already been settled. The disputed Minerva Reef which is claimed by both Fiji and Tonga could now well come under renewed scrutiny. Fiji doesn't recognise Tonga's annexation of the reef in 1972 and five years ago destroyed its navigational beacons there. Professor Rothwell says the inherent worth of the reef is now quite different as a result of the decision.

DONALD ROTHWELL: It may well seek to dampen some of the aspirations of the claimants because the reef might now be properly characterised as nothing more than being entitled to a 12 nautical mile territorial sea as opposed to a very expansive maritime claim to an exclusive economic zone and continental shelf.

China refused to participate in the tribunal's proceedings and says it will ignore the rulings, but has since indicated it will seek to maintain peace and stability in the South China Sea. So could there be any effect on the geopolitics of the Pacific island region which has seen a beefed up US presence in the last few years? A defence analyst at Wellington's Centre for Strategic Studies Paul Sinclair says the US military build up on Guam is likely to continue but more over a tense Korean peninsula.

PAUL SINCLAIR: China of course was very unhappy about the decision. I doubt that it was surprised. There's a reputational risk attached to that in terms of how China responds. What we might see in terms of the South Pacific is China redoubling its efforts to provide aid and other assistance in an effort to try and build up its soft diplomacy in the region and elsewhere.

A scholar of China's strategic affairs at Australia's Bond University Rosita Dellios expects China will up its profile in the Pacific. She says China wants to be seen as a great power contributing to global order despite not taking part in the South China Sea case.

ROSITA DELLIOS: Of course they protested but they will take on board anything that might detract from their image as a great power which is attractive and not simply displaying economic power or military power. It would like to be attractive. It would like to have friends. It wants to cultivate friends. I think we'll see more soft power, more efforts to strategise about its developmental role.

Guam, which houses a US military base, has called on China to respect the ruling.