Transcript
WZ: The political divide in New Caledonia usually runs along the line of being pro- or anti-independence and local parties express their preferences of French candidates with that concept in mind. New Caledonia is traditionally fervently centre-right as the anti-indepedence camp in general regards The Republicans as guarantors of the continued presence of the French state and in a way of the status-quo. This means that the traditional way of doing politics called for the endorsement of Francois Fillon of the Republicans who of all candidates won most votes with just over 31 percent.
SR: Now Francois Fillon is out of contention and calling on his supporters to back Emmanuel Macron. Will that work?
WZ: It's hard to say. Mr Fillon wasn't the New Caledonians' first choice in last year's primaries - that was Nicolas Sarkozy. Emmanuel Macron had been a minister in a Socialist government and New Caledonia's right has difficulty coming to terms with the dramatic change of French politics. As we know, Mr Macron had his worst result in New Caledonia.
SR: What is his support like?
WZ: Two days before the weekend vote, the mayor of Noumea Sonia Lagarde shocked the local establishment by siding with Mr Macron, which was a move away from Mr Fillon. Now there is a further split in what used to be the Republicans' family in New Caledonia as for many Marine Le Pen's nationalist policies appear to be the best guarantee that France will stay. New Caledonia's right is struggling to commit with the decision and some leaders are yet to make up their mind.
SR: How much support can Ms Le Pen expect?
WZ: Against the background of an anti-Macron sentiment, she may keep doing well. In last weekend's vote she was only narrowly beaten by Mr Fillon and secured top spot in many Noumea suburbs. There is every chance that she will win in New Caledonia.
SR: What about the pro-independence side? Many stayed away in the last round.
WZ: The pro-independence side is unlikely to support Ms Le Pen - in last weekend's first round, many Kanaks didn't vote because one major party advised its supporters not to involve themselves. The party which favoured voting asked the voters to back the Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon. He subsequently came first along much of the west coast and in the Loyalty Islands, but missed out badly in mainland France.
SR: What do we know about next year's independence referendum in New Caledonia?
WZ: Nothing points to any delay or change of the Noumea Accord which has been the roadmap since 1998. Ms Le Pen has said she will honour its terms. This is not to say that there could be a rethink under either Mr Macron or Mr Le Pen because of pressures from New Caledonian leaders.
