Transcript
JONATHAN PRYKE: That's a tough question to answer because the reports we have seen coming out of Fairfax media today are from sources within the Australia Government, or within Canberra, that Beijing's planss could ultimately lead to a military or naval base in Vanuatu. So there is a still quite a degree of speculation into how far this conversation has actually gone between China and Vanuatu. Clearly the objective here is to try and get more clarity on far these conversations are going, to try and get the Australian Government and partners in the region to talk to the Vanautu Government or have a hard conversation and try and get the Vanuatu Government to refute any potential of this happening in the future. Clearly having a naval base in our back year or our immediate neighbourhood, it would be quite distressing for officials in Canberra.
DON WISEMAN: Yes but of course a long wharf doesn't make a naval base does it? if you have one or two ships tie up there at odd times does that make it a naval base?
JP: yeah that's a great question. The objective of this wharf from the outset has been to develop tourism on Vanuatu's largest island to enable larger cruise ships to come more regularly to that island. There were questions from the outset 'was this much investment needed' but there is the counter argument that well once you build it people with come. We are trying to put the assets in there so we can develop more tourism potential for that island. So there is definitely an economic imperative for having this wharf. Should it have been this big, it is very hard for me to say. But certainly from the intelligence side of things, or the security side of things, when you look at this you look at it as being a potential military asset.
DW: We need to say of course that China has funded this wharf but it is through a loan.
JP: That's right. It's a $US55 million dollar that has built this. A Chinese contractor has built the wharf. In fact the wharf wasn't built up to a standard that the Vanuatu Government expects, so the Chinese Government had to come in, at their own cost, and rehabilate this newly built wharf. So there are issues around the effectiveness of these sorts of projects in the Pacific, but this is real status quo work of China - throughout the world really. They engage in their aid and development through loans of some degree of concessionality, and then they have Chinese contractors implement these loans and it gives them a nice bit of economic leverage over these countries, with this massive debt that they incur, and that can be used in the future, or not, as economic leverage. It is an ongoing conversation in the Pacific how strategic China has been with its engagement in the Pacific region. China has given about $1.8 billlion dollars in a mixture of grants and loans to the Pacific, from 2006 to 2016, which makes it a significant donor in the region, but how much strategy has come behind that, or how much it's part of a bottom up, organic part of a global reach from China - it's a difficult one to answer.
DW: You would certainly be expecting, at this point, that there will be a lot of pressure coming from Canberra on Port Vila to ensure the Chinese don't make use of this wharf.
JP: I would have to think that yes I am sure conversations have been had and conversations are continuing to be had with Vanuatu. Foreign Minister Bishop was on ABC radio just re-affirming that she was confident that Australia is the key strategic partner of Vanuatu and the broader Pacific, but it is not just about having hard conversations. We need to keep upping our game. We are trying to do the step change in the Pacific but we need to have a re-engagement or re-concentration of effort to build these relationships and to show the Pacific that the region is critically important to us.
DW: Vanuatu of course is not the first place where we understand China has had discussions about a possible naval base. There's been Fiji, there's been suggestions that Tonga, which is in hock to China for a large amount has also been approached, but what is the attraction, really, for China in having a base down here?
JP: That's a great question. China clearly is interested in expanding its sphere of influence in Asia and the broader Pacific, but as its objectives in coming this far south, this far into Australia and New Zealand's neighbourhood, and the Pacific neighbourhood, it's a great question and one that I am sure people in Canberra will spend a lot of time trying to figure out. Chinea is clearly playing a very long game here but if this is true and they are actively pursuing a naval base in this part of the world it could have - it's a risky one, because this could a potential red line that Australia, New Zealand and the United States are not prepared to let China cross.
