Russian display of strength in region no surprise says academic

Transcript

A global security and international relations expert, Robert Patman, says it's no surprise Russia is trying to reassert itself in the Asia Pacific.

The US air force has noted Russia's airforce has significantly stepped up activity in the region including a recent circumnavigation of Guam.

Professor Patman told Sally Round the show of force is partly bluster and a flexing of muscles, but also due to Russia being struck by the rise of China and not wanting to be left out.

ROBERT PATMAN: The Asia Pacific is the key arena of global politics in the 21st century and the rise of China - and it's not just China of course, there's other dynamic economies such as India - all these factors mean any ambitious external power will want to plug in to the economic prosperity of their area and Russia's no exception.

SALLY ROUND: So if we just look further south, at the islands, the countries in the South Pacific. What are Russia's interests there?

RP: I think Russia is deeply concerned about the rise of China. During the Ukraine crisis, Russian decision-makers have alluded to the China option but the fact of the matter is that China is increasing its diplomatic network quite rapidly and has become a significant player in the Pacific, particularly in those countries which we consider to be in our backyards such as Fiji. I think this is part and parcel of China's efforts to extend its influence but also to plug into the economic potentialities. This is an energy-hungry country. This is a country which is also I think trying to present an alternative model to the US political and economic model in the Pacific and I think Russia is also responding to these dynamics. It's interesting, the Russian attitude to China is one characterised by historical suspicion. I think there's admiration for the rise of China but there's also wariness. Russian diplomats often speak privately of their disdain for what they sometimes call the arrogance of China's rise and some of their diplomatic attitudes so what's interesting to me is that in an ideal world both China and Russia would probably prioritise relations with the United States above with each other. That is to say the United States is the pivotal player in the triangle between itself and China and Russia.

SR: Do we see much aid from Russia going into the Pacific?

RP: It's certainly increasing but Russia, much of its power is military and it's a country which relies heavily on export of energy sources, oil and gas. That is a key weakness of Russian economic diplomacy and so it will be outgunned in the Pacific and elsewhere, and is being outgunned by the likes of the United States and China.

SR: So it's not in a position to provide aid or it hasn't got the capacity?

RP: It hasn't got the capacity to seriously economically compete with either the United States or China. It can compete selectively. It can certainly provide weapons as it does to Syria. It provides over a billion dollars of weaponry to Syria and it is still a significant regional power in the world. It still has considerable military capabilities. It's a nuclear power and although it has since the end of the Cold War generally seen a decline in its fortunes it has undergone a little bit of a revival under Mr Putin although since 2009 I think the Russian economy has lost momentum.