6 May 2016

What are the chances that Leicester will win the EPL again?

From Nine To Noon, 9:42 am on 6 May 2016

Stefan Szymanski, author of Money and Football: A Soccernomics Guide, crunches the numbers on Leicester City’s remarkable season.

Leicester City players celebrate

Leicester City stunned the sporting world in 2016. Photo: AFP

What made this season so special?

The odds of Leicester winning this season were 5000 to 1. That’s about the same chance of tossing a coin 12 times and having it show heads each time.

No team in the last 20 years has won the Premier League without being in one of the top 4 spenders - and 16 out of that 20 were either the highest spender or second highest spender.

Leicester was about the 12th highest spender this season, paying  $57 million pounds.

On average, the goals scored versus goals concede would have put Leicester in fourth place, not first place.

What about the team’s chances next season?

Bookies are giving Leicester odds of 33 to 1 to win the Premier League next season - the same as tossing coin five times and it coming down heads each time.

Six clubs have been given better odds to take the title, making Leicester seventh favourite to win next season.

But there is a trend towards less inequality and in the future we might see more Leicester-type stories emerging.

*All figures from Stefan Szymanski's interview with Kathryn Ryan on Nine To Noon.