15 Sep 2018

What Are The Odds? A radio documentary about coincidence

From The Podcast Hour, 12:15 pm on 15 September 2018

Even your most stunning slice of serendipity is unlikely to impress David Spiegelhalter, a coincidence collector and Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge.

woman in yellow jacket in front of yellow bus

Photo: Serhat Beyazkaya on Unsplash

BBC presenter Rajesh Mirchandani / Statistician David Spiegelhalter

BBC presenter Rajesh Mirchandani / Statistician David Spiegelhalter Photo: BBC / SPH

People love coincidences, so often find Spiegelhalter to be a "miserable old git" for questioning their existence, he says in the BBC Radio 4 documentary What Are The Odds?

Humans are "geared up to be pattern-searchers" and we don't like the idea of chance, Spiegelhalter tells presenter Rajesh Mirchandani.

But he is very sceptical of concepts like synchronicity and seriality: "I just believe in the world being a deeply complex unpredictable place in which things happen".

"It's good fiction but [coincidences] really don't happen."

What's the biggest coincidence you've ever experienced? 

The Podcast Hour's Richard Scott has a good story:

"On a family holiday to Cyprus, the airline lost our bags en route. We went to a local travel agent to sort it all out – and there, lying on the travel agent's desk – was a letter addressed to our old home in Scotland.

"It turned out the travel agent's parents had bought our old home from us. What are the chances of that?"

If you can beat that, Richard wants to hear about it – pods@radionz.co.nz