Infometrics economist Benje Patterson says housing consents are not going to lift outside Canterbury until house prices rise significantly.
Building consents surged in Canterbury but remain weak across the rest of the country, with the number issued in March falling a seasonally adjusted 9.1% on the previous month.
Mr Patterson said consent numbers outside of Canterbury will remain subdued over the coming months.
But with rising house prices, he said consent numbers will increase as people may find it more cost-effective to build rather than buy their homes, providing they have access to credit.
Mr Patterson said a lack of access to credit following the collapse of the finance companies is one of the key things that has held back house building over the last few years.
"Credit conditions have eased significantly and if they continue to do so this is something that could underpin more building activity in response to those rising house prices."
In Canterbury, housing consents reached a six-year high with 444 issued.
Mr Patterson said the impact of the rebuilding programme is finally kicking in.
He said the increase in consents does not just apply to Christchurch, but also to towns in the surrounding areas in the Waimakariri and Selwyn districts.
Mr Patterson said the expectation is that consents will continue to increase because there is still a significant amount of residential rebuilding work to take place.
At the same time, he said people will be driven to build more in those regions because house prices are still increasing at a significant rate in Canterbury.
