11 Jun 2013

Treasury admits weakness with income tax predictions

7:08 pm on 11 June 2013

The Treasury says it is among the top forecasters on the economy, but is weaker with its income tax predictions.

It has released new figures on its economic and tax forecasting performance covering the 10 years to 2012.

The report shows the Treasury remains among the top one or two forecasters of real GDP growth and Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation over the last 10 years.

It said average forecast errors for real GDP growth, nominal GDP growth and CPI inflation are similar to those of the previous year.

But it said errors in the longer-term forecasts of tax revenue and receipts have increased, mainly due to large forecast errors during the 2008 recession.