21 Jun 2013

Wide range of Mighty River share price forecasts

9:57 am on 21 June 2013

Some of the brokers involved in the Mighty River Power listing do not believe its shares will rise above the $2.50 issue price the next year, but a fund manager says investors should not be concerned.

Companies involved in the float have, until now, been prevented from issuing research on Mighty River.

In the first research, Craigs Investment Partners has set a target share price of $2.48 in a year's time, Forsyth Barr believes the stock will be worth $2.35, Goldman Sachs is forecasting a price of $2.50 and Macquarie believes shares will reach $2.92.

Milford Asset Management executive director Brian Gaynor says it's normal to have such a wide range of targets and the nature of any market is that there will be people with a positive point of view and a negative one.

He says although some analysts are putting the shares below the offer price, some have put it above the offer price.

Mighty River's share price has fallen more than 8% since its partial listing on the NZX, and closed at $2.29 on Thursday.

The drop is largely due to international institutions selling down their stakes because of recent falls in the sharemarket and New Zealand dollar.

Mr Gaynor says it's a common trend among international investors in New Zealand companies.

He says the Mighty River float in May was at the top of the market, which has since fallen. Mr Gaynor says the price was set at a higher level than would have occurred because of the huge level of international interest, but the environment has changed and international investors have now sold out.

"If you look at the history of previous floats like Contact Energy, like Auckland International Airport, like Telecom - all of them the share price rose in the first week or so after they were listed and then the share price fell and mainly because international investors sold out."

Mr Gaynor says international investors get nervous if anything goes wrong because they don't know New Zealand.