6 Sep 2013

Speculation about new Federal Reserve chair continues

7:10 am on 6 September 2013

Speculation continues about the future leader of the United States Federal Reserve, the world's most important central bank continues.

President Barack Obama has said he will decide in the coming weeks who will replace chairman Ben Bernanke when his term ends in January.

Since the impact of decisions made by the US Federal Reserve are often felt beyond its borders, the BBC reports it really matters who gets the job.

A New Zealand foreign exchange strategist says the market is already reacting to the question of who will head the Federal Reserve.

ANZ FX senior manager Sam Tuck said the market is moving on speculation about the new chair in the absence of other news.

He said there is a general perception that the two main contenders are Janet Yellen who is the current vice-chair of the Federal Reserve and former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers.

Mr Tuck said the perception is that Mr Summers is more likely to exit easy monetary policy or at least provide more decisive action, rather than considered action, when compared to Ms Yellen, who has never worked on Wall Street.

He says any time that the probability of Mr Summers as the next Federal Reserve chairman increases it leads to more market volatility and increases uncertainty.

Mr Tuck said the market's perception is that he is not as bigger proponent of quantitative easing as Ms Yellen.

He said that will increase uncertainty where the New Zealand dollar is concerned.

"What it does is it increases the ability of the New Zealand dollar to strengthen and decline, depending on how people view what's happening at the particular time, the data."

Mr Tuck said it will make the increases in the New Zealand dollar on weak US data bigger and it will make the decreases of the New Zealand dollar on strong US data bigger.

He said the reaction to the US data will be larger, depending on what that data is.