3 Dec 2013

NZ terms of trade highest in 40 years

6:56 am on 3 December 2013

New Zealand's terms of trade rose to the highest level in 40 years in the September quarter, largely thanks to the dairy boom.

The terms of trade, a measure of the nation's purchasing power, rose 7.5% in the three months to September.

Dairy export prices jumped 24% to their highest level since 2008 in the latest quarter while, overall, export prices rose 8.9%.

Forestry prices were up 7.9%, while lamb prices rose 11%.

Prices for imported goods rose 1.2% in the three months, their first increase after four consecutive quarterly falls, mainly due to higher crude oil prices.

However, Westpac economist Anne Boniface said although export prices may edge a little higher yet, she did not expect the high prices to last.

"We think we've probably seen the bulk of the upward move in dairy prices, in particular, and dairy prices have actually started to come back a little bit," she said.

"We'd expect further downward pressure on dairy prices next year, as global production starts to pick up, in particular Northern Hemisphere production out of the US and Europe, and some of that will flow through into world markets as producers look to take advantage of the high prices on offer."

On the other side of the ledger, prices for imported goods rose 1.2% in the three months, their first increase after four consecutive quarterly falls, mainly due to higher crude oil prices. Import prices were down 3.1%.