The latest rise in global dairy prices will be a welcome relief to farmers, but does not necessarily signal a return to a higher farmgate milk price.
Average dairy prices rose 1.4 percent in the international auction to $US2640 per tonne, this week.
Fonterra is watching the auctions to see whether its forecast for the farmgate milk price is on track at $5.30 per kilo of milk solids.
But analysts think Fonterra's forecast is too high, and will need to be revised again, somewhere in a range between $4 and $5.
BNZ economist Doug Steel said it was unlikely Fonterra would make a further revision at this stage, but he sees considerable downside risk as the season progresses.