A new TV3 Reid Research poll kept National firmly in the box seat at 50.3%, fractionally up on its most recent four-poll average reading. The TV3 poll was published on the evening of 10 September and was taken over 2-8 September.
Explainer: The POLL of POLLS is an arithmetical average of the four most recent major polls since mid-June from among: TV1 Colmar Brunton, TV3 Reid Research, Fairfax Media-Ipsos, NZ Herald DigiPoll, Roy Morgan New Zealand and UMR Research, which is not published.*
On this reading, all National needed for a majority a fortnight out from the election (from the midpoint of interviewing) was for David Seymour to win Epsom for ACT and Peter Dunne to win Ohariu for United Future. Add in Te Ururoa Flavell from the Maori Party, and nothing much would have changed from 2011.
Labour and the Greens also rose fractionally to 25.1% and 12.1% respectively.
Poll performance of National vs Labour vs Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
National's lead over Labour and the Greens combined slipped fractionally to a still whopping 13.1%.
Poll performance of National vs Labour and Greens (2014). Graphic: RNZ
New Zealand First was unchanged on 5.6% and the Conservatives marginally up at 3.5%. Internet-Mana stayed at 2.2% and the Maori party dropped to 0.7%. ACT was 0.3% and United Future 0.2%.
Poll performance of NZ First vs Internet-Mana vs Conservatives (2014). Graphic: RNZ
Here is how the latest poll average would translate into seats, assuming Seymour wins Epsom and Dunne wins Ohariu, and also assuming both parties get at least 0.4% in the election, up from their very low poll of polls ratings.
If not, they would be "overhangs" and push up the number of seats in Parliament by two, requiring 62 for a majority. The table also assumes the Maori party wins Waiariki and one of Te Tai Hauauru or Tamaki Makaurau, which recent polls have split near evenly between the Maori Party and Labour. That additional seat is an "overhang".
| Parties | Latest 4-poll average | Seats |
|---|---|---|
| National side (total) | 63 | |
| National | 50.3% | 61 |
| ACT | 0.3% | 1* |
| United Future | 0.2% | 1* |
| Conservatives | 3.5% | 0 |
| Could go either way | 9 | |
| Maori Party | 0.7% | 2** |
| New Zealand First | 5.6% | 7 |
| Labour-Green side (total) | 46 | |
| Labour | 25.1% | 31 |
| Greens | 12.1% | 15 |
| Other | 3 | |
| Internet Mana | 2.2% | 3 |
| Total seats including overhangs | 121 |
* ACT and United Future are both assumed to get above 0.4% in the actual election and so each earn a party vote quota. They would then between them add only one net seat to National's side because National, having half the total party votes, would lose one quota. This is dealt with in the table by subtracting one seat from National to give it 61.
** The Maori party is assumed to win Waiariki and one of Te Tai Hauauru or Tamaki Makaurau, which would be one more electorate seat than the total its 0.7% party vote entitles it to. That would therefore be an overhang seat, pushing the total seats up to 121.
*The four polls included in the latest average were, in date order of the midpoint between the start and finish of voter interviews, New Zealand Herald, Fairfax and TV1 and TV3.
