25 Sep 2008

Retailers remain cautious

8:44 am on 25 September 2008

Retailers say a sudden increase in spending is unlikely despite a rise in consumer confidence.

The Westpac-McDermott Miller consumer confidence index bounced back by a record 23 points to 104.8 in the three months to September.

A reading above 100 indicates there are more optimists out there than pessimists.

Previously the index was at its lowest level in 17 years.

However, 38% of consumers now expect better economic times over the next five years, the most positive response to this question since 1996.

The rise is attributed to lower fuel prices, a cut in the Official Cash Rate by the Reserve Bank to 7.5% and upcoming tax cuts

However, the survey was taken before the latest turmoil on financial markets.

The Retail Association says the turnaround in attitudes is promising but it does not believe there will be much growth, if any, during the next three months.

Westpac senior economist, Donna Purdue believes a reduced dairy payout forecast by Fonterra and a rise in oil prices could curb the extent of the optimism.

The margin of error in the survey is 2.5% at a 95% confidence interval.