The number of foreign students is expected to fall for the third consecutive year, pushing enrolments near or even below the low point of 91,000 in 2008.
The drop comes despite a Government goal of doubling the value of the $2.6 billion industry by 2025.
The fall in enrolments has mostly hurt English language schools and private tertiary institutions.
However, Education New Zealand, the body that promotes New Zealand education overseas, says enrolments in longer-term courses with higher fees have risen slightly.
It says that means the overall value of the industry has risen, and it is optimistic the $5 billion target can be met in 12 years.
Delegates at the International Education Conference in Christchurch on Friday agree the goal is achievable, but told Radio New Zealand it will require more favourable immigration rules for students.
Education New Zealand chief executive Grant McPherson says there are indications the decline is coming to an end.
"What we are hearing is that the interest in schools for the first quarter of next year is higher than it has been previously. We are also hearing from some of the English language schools that they've had the best September and October in 10 years."
