The Ministry for Primary Industries says dairy farmers will be hardest hit by a decline in pastoral farming incomes expected this year.
The ministry has issed its analyses of the financial performance of typical dairy, sheep and beef, and deer farms.
Income from milk payments is expected to fall 20% for the national dairy farm model.
That will result in a pre-tax profit slump of about 57% compared with the past season.
Ag First consultant Phil Journeaux, says dairy farmers are under considerable financial pressure this season and those carrying high levels of debt are particularly vulnerable.
''The average farm is actually going to run at a loss this year," he said, adding that some highly indebted dairy farmers would fail.
