Maori Party MP Te Ururoa Flavell does not think enough people will join the Maori roll to create another Maori seat in Parliament.
More than five thousand people have joined the Maori Electoral Roll since the option opened in March - and most of them are new voters.
But 9700 more people would need to join it in the next month to be on par with the 2006 option - which saw no increase in Maori seats.
There are currently seven Maori seats in a Parliament of 121.
Mr Flavell said it is still early days but it doesn't look like there will be a change, which is disappointing.
He said there is a chance that a Maori seat will be lost, but he's hoping for a rise in registered voters over the next month, which would make that unlikely.
Mr Flavell entered a Member's bill earlier this month into the ballot to automatically register Maori on the Maori roll.