Decoding Clinton's easy win in South Carolina

9:41 am on 1 March 2016

Hillary Clinton has easily beaten Bernie Sanders in the South Carolina primary, in the latest battle for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination.

Hillary Clinton addresses a rally in Columbia, South Carolina following her sweeping victory in the state's Democratic primary.

Hillary Clinton addresses a rally in Columbia, South Carolina following her sweeping victory in the state's Democratic primary. Photo: AFP

It is Mrs Clinton's third victory in four contests, after wins in Iowa and Nevada. She lost to Mr Sanders in New Hampshire.

So Hillary Clinton won the Democratic primary in South Carolina. No surprise there. Before the vote

the polls predicted she would win by between 18 percent and 29 percent, except one which had her out in front by 50 percent. In the end that one was closest.

She was 47.5 percent ahead of Bernie Sanders, a shellacking if ever there was one.

And even under the Democratic share and share alike rules she took away [http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2016-delegate-tracker/

39 delegates to Senator Sanders 14].

This is important because:

  • Mrs Clinton showed she can carry the black electorate that swept Obama to office (she won black support by
  • 84 percent -16 percent). In fact she took a bigger portion of the black vote than Obama did!

  • Black turnout was at a record high, so not just strong support but enthusiasm, even when you know your candidate is a shoo-in.
  • This obsession with black vote is because in Democratic contests they are a critical factor in winning quite a lot of the states (including four of the 10 Super Tuesday states).
  • Bernie Sanders' core supporters, the young, barely showed up at all (just 15 percent).
  • The momentum from this result may suppress Bernie Sanders' support and turnout.
  • Hillary Clinton won every demographic except the very young, and white men.
  • If these demographics carry forward to similar states around the south Bernie Sanders is going to fall behind quickly.

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