2 Sep 2013

Terms of trade up again, thanks to dairy surge

7:03 pm on 2 September 2013

Surging dairy prices pushed the terms of trade nearly 5% higher in the second quarter of the year - the second quarter in a row that they have risen.

However, they are still 2.5% below the 37-year high reached two years ago.

An increase in the terms of trade means New Zealand can buy more imports for the same amount of exports.

Dairy prices rose 14% in the quarter, compared with the first three months of the year, while volumes fell because of the effects of drought.

Import prices fell 1.5%, reflecting lower crude oil and capital goods prices.

ANZ senior economist Mark Smith says that without dairy exports, the terms of trade would have risen 1.6%. He adds, however, that "we're starting to see some signs of higher prices filtering through more generally", including with fish, forestry and food and beverages.

Mr Smith says rising dairy prices are expected to push the terms of trade to a 39-year high later this year.

Survey shows less leaning towards China

Meanwhile, a new survey shows there's a growing desire to diversify trade away from China, possibly because of the Fonterra botulism scare.

The survey of 582 business that subscribe to the BNZ's Weekly Overview newsletter concludes there is far less confidence about New Zealand's reliance on trade with China than previously.

The survey - conducted after news of the contamination scare broke - shows the number of those satisfied with dependence on China fell from 44% to 28%.

Statistics New Zealand figures show China is this country's biggest trading partner.

BNZ chief economist Tony Alexander says the survey shows that the scare could have had a negative impact but overall the result is "still fairly positive".

"People are certainly aware of the importance of our relationship with China to the New Zealand economy and, of course, with the concerns about some of the safety for a while there of the milk powder, I think people are simply aware that there could be a negative impact on our economy if this were to persist or worsen," Mr Alexander says.

He believes the survey results are "just more of a realisation of that importance coming through".