28 Jan 2010

Official Cash Rate kept on hold

1:23 pm on 28 January 2010

The Reserve Bank has left the Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.5%, as had been expected.

The interest rate has been at the record low of 2.5% since 30 April, 2009, when the central bank made a cut in response to the recession.

Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said the outlook for the economy remained consistent with projections made in December, and pointed to the support being given to exports by economic growth in Asia.

"However, sustained growth throughout our trading partners is not assured," Dr Bollard said in a statement, "with many still facing impaired financial sectors and overall activity still reliant on policy support.

"Similarly, the New Zealand economy continues to recover. Policy stimulus and improving export earnings have seen a pickup in household spending. That said, households remain cautious, with credit growth subdued. Business spending remains weak.

"Annual CPI inflation is currently at the centre of the target band, and is expected to track comfortably within the band over the medium term.

"The economy is being assisted by both monetary and fiscal policy support. As growth becomes self sustaining, fiscal consolidation would help reduce the work that monetary policy might otherwise need to do.

Dr Bollard repeated his December prediction that the bank will begin to raise the Official Cash Rate around the middle of this year, as long as the economy continues to recover.

Economists are divided over when rates may go up. Deustche Bank is pencilling in a rate rise as soon as April, on the back of stronger than expected busines growth in April's quarterly business survey.

However the ANZ is flagging a June start to the tightening cycle.

In July 2008, the Reserve Bank reduced the rate from 8.25% to 8%, which had been the first cut since July 2003.

The New Zealand dollar fell slightly after the announcement. It was buying US 70.45 cents, shortly before 10am.

US holds rates

The US Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged at their range of between zero and 0.25% on Wednesday.

The central bank said it expected to keep rates exceptionally low for an extended period, to support the economic recovery.

Interest rates have been at their current low range since December 2008.

In Australia, economists are predicting an interest rate rise by the Reserve Bank next week, due to slightly higher than expected increase in inflation, the ABC reports.