Analysts have pared back their forecasts for economic growth because of the darkening global outlook and delays to the rebuilding of Christchurch.
The NZ Institute of Economic Research's latest round-up of forecasts show respondents expect the economy to expand by 2.2% in the year to the end of March, compared with the 2.6% forecast in September.
Growth is expected to rise to 3% in 2014, but that's less than the 3.7% forecast three months ago.
A weaker economy and subdued inflation mean economists now expect the Reserve Bank to raise interest rates later and more gradually.