New Zealand stand for the National anthem during the ICC Men's Cricket World Cup 2023 match between South Africa and New Zealand Photo: Gallo Images
Looking at the numbers, there's a fair chance tonight's crunch Cricket World Cup semi-final will come down to who wins the toss. The Black Caps go in as serious underdogs against a powerful Indian side at Wankhede Stadium in Mumbai, having won their first four games and then dropped the next four before bouncing back in their last outing against Sri Lanka.
Here's the key stat: The average score for a team batting first is 357/6, while the team coming in second is a paltry 188/9. That difference is inflated massively by Glenn Maxwell's unbelievable, match winning 201 not out against Afghanistan, but that can't hide the fact that his Australian side were 91/7 at one stage.
New Zealand's Trent Boult celebrates the wicket of Temba Bavuma (captain) of South Africa during the ICC Men's Cricket World Cup 2023 match between South Africa and New Zealand Photo: Gallo Images
The Black Caps have three wins and two losses while chasing. One of those chases was almost as perfect as you could get, especially since it came against England. But the collapse against South Africa certainly was the low point of the tournament.
They've put two games and almost 600 runs between then and now, to be fair. Just how the Black Caps combat this balanced and in form Indian team, in front of a packed house expecting their side to win easily, is an interesting challenge.
India certainly are formidable and you only need to look at their tournament record to see why. They have won all their nine matches by a minimum of 100 runs or four wickets, have three of the top eight-run scorers and three of the top seven wicket-takers.
Virat Kohli has racked up 594 runs at the World Cup at an average of 99, including a 95 in the Black Caps' four wicket loss to India. So obviously his wicket will be key, while India will be after Rachin Ravindra. The breakout star of the Black Caps is not far behind Kohli on 565 runs at 70, however, both men have plenty of help around them is they are out cheaply. While batting, the main thing the Black Caps will be concerned about is that the top economy rates in the tournament belong to Indian bowlers. Jasprit Bumrah and Ravi Jadeja are both under four runs per over across nine games, with both men taking wickets at averages of 15 and 18 respectively. Ravi Ashwin is going for even less, but he's only played one game.
Daryl Mitchell (R) and Rachin Ravindra of New Zealand run between the wicket during the ICC Men's Cricket World Cup India 2023 match between India and New Zealand Photo: Surjeet Yadav
Ravindra may well play a part bowling, along with fellow spinner Glenn Phillips. Again, it's likely they Black Caps' attack is going to feel a lot better about defending a total rather than having to restrict India in the first innings.
Then there's history. These two sides met at the same stage of the last World Cup, in which India came in as favourites having topped the table with seven wins and Rohit Sharma topping the run tally. The Black Caps were not too far off where they're sitting now, with five wins and three losses, although they hadn't dropped a bunch in a row like they have over the past few weeks.
It's actually not that far from the situation heading into 2021's World Test Championship either, with the Indians favourites to win there, too. But historically, India is a hard place for the Black Caps to get a result. The hardest, in fact - they're only good for one win in every 10 matches against the home side there.
The weather is looking good for the game, Mumbai is set to swelter in the low 30s for the first innings at least. That's in stark contrast to the other semi-final at Eden Gardens in Kolkata between Australia and South Africa, that's in danger of being hit by a cyclone and would hand the long suffering Proteas a World Cup final spot for the first time on net run rate.
When you weigh it all up, this will stand as a massive upset if the Black Caps can pull it off. But with a bit of luck at the toss, a few runs to play with and the knowledge that it's been done before, it's not an impossible task.
