20 Oct 2008

Inflation expected to reach 5%

4:12 pm on 20 October 2008

Inflation is expected to reach its highest rate in almost two decades, when figures are issued on Tuesday by Statistics New Zealand.

Most economists expect the Consumer Price Index to reach 5% in the September quarter.

The Reserve Bank has forecast an increase of 1.3% for the quarter, bringing the rate to 4.9%.

New Zealand is also technically in a recession: Gross Domestic Product was down 0.2% for the June quarter and 0.3% for the March quarter.

The last recession, in 1997-98, lasted nine months.

Meanwhile, activity in the service sector continues to drop sharply - showing a contraction for the sixth consecutive month.

The Bank of New Zealand-Business New Zealand performance of services index stood at 46.9 in September, down one point from August and 12 points from the same month last year.

A reading below 50 indicates the sector is generally declining.

Within the index, September also marked the first time new orders and business fell below 50.

Business New Zealand chief executive Phil O'Reilly says an increasing number businesses are reporting cashflow concerns.

Even orders for Christmas trading do not look to be taking off, Mr O'Reilly says.