Russian President Vladimir Putin. Photo: Sergei Guneyev / POOL / AFP
By Riley Stuart in London, ABC News
Vladimir Putin has not left Russia this year, or fronted Western leaders in person since his invasion of Ukraine 18 months ago - but both those things could be about to change.
He is supposed to attend next month's G20 summit in India, but the Kremlin has not yet specified whether he will actually make the trip.
The Russian president has not been abroad since the International Criminal Court (ICC) in March issued a warrant for his arrest over alleged war crimes in Ukraine.
Just how difficult that has made travelling was on show this week.
Putin's indictment sparked a political storm in South Africa, which would have been obliged to arrest the 70-year-old had he physically attended a series of meetings on its soil that began on Tuesday.
Instead, he elected to appear virtually, while South African President Cyril Ramaphosa hosted the leaders of India, China and Brazil at the annual BRICS summit.
In his address, Putin said Russia would remain a "responsible supplier" of food to African nations.
The G20 conference, on 9 and 10 September, looms as the first in-person showdown between Putin and Western leaders since Russia's invasion of Ukraine last year.
Putin has not physically turned up to the annual conference since 2019.
He skipped the past two editions in Bali and Rome, while the 2020 summit was held virtually due to the Covid-19 pandemic.
Because the ICC does not have a police force, it relies on countries that are signatories to its Rome Statute to detain people it wants to charge.
Putin's potential arrival in Johannesburg was controversial.
Ramaphosa said arresting him could spark a war with Russia, while the main opposition party took the government to court in a bid to ensure it complied with its ICC obligations.
Attending meetings is 'huge headache'
Rebecca Hamilton, a professor at American University's Washington College of Law, worked as an ICC prosecutor between 2007 and 2009 when then-Sudanese president Omar al-Bashir became the first sitting head of state to be indicted over crimes against humanity.
South Africa was criticised in 2015 when al-Bashir managed to flee the country in a private jet before he could be arrested while visiting Johannesburg for a meeting of African leaders.
"There are a lot of really fantastic human rights lawyers in South Africa, who bring challenges about the country's obligations to uphold its constitution and to follow international law," Professor Hamilton said.
"And so there are domestic level ramifications as well.
"That happens when you've got a situation where Putin would be travelling to a country that has signed up on to the ICC.
"There's a different set of calculations if he's travelling to a country that has not joined the International Criminal Court.
"For Omar al-Bashir it was so frustrating and demeaning for him to have to deal with all of these diplomatic ramifications that come from the warrant."
India has not ratified the Rome Statute, but Hamilton said Putin would face hurdles if he attended the G20 - namely fronting up to nations that had condemned Russia on the international stage.
"The G20 usually produces a statement at the end of their meeting and there will be a fight over what is said about Russia within that statement," she said.
"If Russia attends that's going to be really complicated.
"Then there's a whole lot of diplomatic work that goes on. In terms of public-facing images, does Putin get to join the photos and the group? Does he get pushed to the side?
"Normally there would be journalistic access at the G20 but Putin is probably not going to want hard questions posed to him.
"All of that means attending these meetings are a huge headache for anyone who has an ICC arrest warrant out against them."
Last month, President Recep Erdogan announced Putin would travel to Turkey in August for meetings.
However on Tuesday, pro-government newspaper Yeni Şafak reported Erdogan would instead go to Moscow.
Turkey is not a signatory to the Rome Statute.
India has significant trade ties with Russia, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi is yet to condemn the invasion of Ukraine.
Putin pulled out of last year's G20 summit in Bali the week before it was due to be held and instead sent Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who left early.
Despite his nation not being in the G20, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was invited to attend the meetings in 2022 and appeared virtually.
Zelensky has not been invited this year.
Russian state media has previously reported Putin's plans to go to China in October, but said it was "unclear" whether he would attend the G20 summit in India.
This story was originally published by the ABC.
